KAMPALA.Most parts of the country are predicted to receive average and near average rainfall between September and December .
Uganda enjoys two major rainy seasons (March-May) and (September–December), but due to climate change, the rains these days are destructive and sometimes delay or come unexpectedly.
According to the rainfall outlook for September to December 2025 released by Ministry of Water and Environment on Wednesday most parts of the country are expected to receive near-average rainfall during this period. However, some areas in the cattle corridor of the southwestern region are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall conditions.
According to the forecast, the season will be influenced by major climate drivers, including the sea surface temperature anomaly over the central Pacific Ocean, which is currently in a neutral state with low chances of developing into a La Niña condition; and the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is expected to return to neutral as the season progresses .
Other influencing factors include the positioning of the rainfall belt due to the apparent movement of the overhead sun, the influence of the Congo air mass, topographic features, and large inland water bodies. Intra-seasonal variations in the wind system, known as Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO), will also affect the spatial distribution of rainfall across the country.
“This is expected to affect the distribution of rainfall at different times of the season over most parts of the country,” the statement reads.
The State Minister for Water and Environment, Ms Beatrice Anywar, urged stakeholders to use the forecast for strategic planning to enhance food security, protect livelihoods, and strengthen climate resilience.
“My Ministry will continue to provide timely weather updates to guide national and community-level planning and decision-making,” Ms Anywar said.
Regional Outlook
Southwestern lowlands: Districts such as Ntungamo, Isingiro, Mbarara, Ibanda, Kiruhura, and Kazo, as well as the Rwenzori sub-region (Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, and Bunyangabu), will remain relatively dry until mid-September. Peak rainfall is expected in late October to early November, with cessation projected around mid-December.
Western central districts: Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kyegegwa, and Kakumiro are expected to continue receiving rainfall, peaking in October, with cessation between late November and early December.
Central region (Nakasongola, Luweero, Kakumiro, Kasanda): Overall near-average rainfall is expected, with some areas tending towards below-average conditions.
Eastern and Northern Uganda: These regions are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
In Eastern Uganda (Bugiri, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, and Luuka), peak rainfall is expected from early September to mid-October.
In the Kyoga basin and Mt. Elgon sub-region (Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kumi, Mbale, Manafwa, and Bududa), peak rainfall will likely occur from late September to early October.
In the Northern region (Amudat, Kotido, Kaabong, Arua, Maracha, Koboko, Yumbe, among others), peak rainfall is also expected from late September to early October.